Trilogy Funds Update – October 2023

In October, three economic data points were released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics which we expect will play a key role in the November Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) official cash rate decision:

  • The national unemployment rate, which decreased from 3.7% in August to 3.6% in September,
  • CPI inflation, which increased from 0.8% in the quarter ending 30 June to 1.2% in the quarter ending 30 September, and
  • retail sales, which saw a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.9% month-on-month in September 2023 and an increase of 2.0% compared to the same month last year.

Speaking before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee on the 26th of October, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said she was unable to answer whether or not the September quarterly inflation data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics will affect the central bank’s inflation forecasts and monetary policy.

That said, with unemployment near historical lows, CPI inflation coming in higher than previously anticipated and strong retail sales, many in the market are anticipating a target cash rate increase next Tuesday. All four major banks are predicting that the RBA will increase the cash rate by another 25bps, bringing it to 4.35% in the November meeting.

This article is issued by Trilogy Funds Management Limited ABN 59 080 383 679 AFSL 261425 (Trilogy Funds) as responsible entity for the management investment schemes mentioned in this article. Application for investment can only be made on the application form accompanying the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and by considering the Target Market Determination (TMD) available at The PDS contain full details of the terms and conditions of investment and should be read in full, particularly the risk section prior to lodging any application or making a further investment, together with the TMD. All investments, including those with Trilogy Funds, involve risk which can lead to no or lower than expected returns, or a loss of part or all of your capital. Trilogy Funds is licensed to provide only general financial product advice about its products and therefore recommends you seek personal advice on the suitability of this investment to your objectives, financial situation and needs from a licensed financial adviser. Investments with Trilogy are not bank deposits and are not government guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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