Trilogy Funds Update – January 2024

2024 is shaping up to be an eventful year for the Australian economy. Inflation continues to be a theme, particularly given the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) focus on bringing CPI growth to its 2%-3% p.a. target range. In January, the RBA published a report based on the pricing experiences and expectations of 80 firms across a range of industries. They found that the median increase in prices across these firms in the 12 months to September 2023 was 7%, and the median increase in prices forecast by these firms over next 12 months (from September 2023) was 4%. Services based industries were found to have the highest forward looking price growth expectations, at approximately 5%.

Notably, firms stated that cost pressures had largely driven the previous price increases, and negative changes in demand is why they anticipated price growth to fall. Importantly, while the report was published in January, it was based on data collected last September. Between then and now, there have been additional developments reported.

For example, the CommBank Household Spending Insights Index retreated by -3.9% in December 2023. A sharp decline in a single month, and this news may have influenced the way firms answered the RBA’s survey, had the survey been conducted in January 2024 as opposed to September 2023. CommBank reports that 8 of the 12 spending categories declined, with Household Goods declining the most (-12%).

Also reported in January, the RBA acknowledged the consumption growth over the year. According to the RBA, “many households are experiencing acute challenges in the face of high inflation and higher interest rates” and “many individual households…are experiencing significant financial pressure”.

While no doubt this is a challenge for many individuals, this is likely to flow through to lower levels of inflation and in-turn be a consideration for the RBA as they make their interest rate decisions in 2024.

Cost-of-living pressures continue to command a lot of media and political bandwidth. The Albanese Government announced late in January that upcoming Stage III tax cuts will be focussed on providing relief to middle and low-income brackets. If successful, this should provide relief to many households, however, economists warn that too much “relief” could hamper progress made in bringing inflation under control.

At the end of January, we saw very positive inflation news, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics reporting that the Consumer Price Indicator rose 3.4% in the 12 months to December 2023. This is less than half the rise reported in the previous calendar year which saw CPI grow 8.4% over the 12 months to December 2022. On a quarterly basis CPI rose by 0.66% in the December 2023 quarter, a fraction of the 2.78% quarterly rise to December 2022. If we annualise the December 2023 quarterly figure, it equates to 2.66% which, interestingly, is within the RBA’s target range. Should inflation remain at or around similar levels for the entirety of 2024, shifts in future monetary policy decisions may arise.

Closer to home, investors in the Trilogy Industrial Property Trust are reminded that the 2024 Interim Withdrawal Offer is open to applications, more information can be found here.

This article is issued by Trilogy Funds Management Limited ABN 59 080 383 679 AFSL 261425 (Trilogy Funds) as responsible entity for the management investment schemes mentioned in this article. Application for investment can only be made on the application form accompanying the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and by considering the Target Market Determination (TMD) available at The PDS contain full details of the terms and conditions of investment and should be read in full, particularly the risk section prior to lodging any application or making a further investment, together with the TMD. All investments, including those with Trilogy Funds, involve risk which can lead to no or lower than expected returns, or a loss of part or all of your capital. Trilogy Funds is licensed to provide only general financial product advice about its products and therefore recommends you seek personal advice on the suitability of this investment to your objectives, financial situation and needs from a licensed financial adviser. Investments with Trilogy are not bank deposits and are not government guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Jump To Top